Markets in consoldation mode:
Some feel-good developments in the Euro zone has pushed the markets into consolidation mode. However, bail out financial support extended by IMF/ECB may not be good enough to remove the strong bearish set up in the market. What next?
USD/INR SPOT: The set short term range play within 51.50-52.50 is valid. We have already seen a sharp reversal from close to 52.50 and is in prepartion of extension into lower end. Till fresh news come in, it is good to sell at 52.35-52.50 (to cover 1-3M receivables) and to buy at 51.65-51.50 (to cover 3-6M payables). I would not be surprised to see RBI on the bid at 51.50 to release rupees into the system.
EUR/USD: We have already seen a nice bounce from the 1.3250-1.3200 support zone (and our t/p level for shorts entered above 1.34). The bounce from 1.3210 is now facing resistance at sell window of 1.3325-1.3375.
In the near term, weakness into 1.3150 is very much on cards not ruling out extended weakness into 1.3000/1.2850. For now, let us look to sell at 1.3325-1.3400 (stop above 1.3425) for 1.3150.
USD/JPY: Got a boune from buy zone of 77.25-76.75 but finding it difficult to take out resistance zone of 77.75-78.00. Let us watch 77.50-78.50 with test/break either-way to attract. The expected move into 79.50-80.00 is valid; hence need to be long for this move.
NIFTY: Good news from Euro zone provided shorts squeeze to drive the NIFTY to higher end of the set range play at 4350-4850. The move from 4650-4850 is at best considered as correction and market should get back to take out 4650 for extension to 4450-4350.
Gold: The reversal from 1710 held well at 1680 and bounce from there was good enough to take out 1710 but expected to stay below 1735. Let us sell at 1725-1740 with stop above 1750 for 1680
NYMEX Crude: It has now traded end-to-end of 95-100. Let us continue to watch 100-103 to hold for push back to 97-95. Play end-to-end.
Moses Harding
Some feel-good developments in the Euro zone has pushed the markets into consolidation mode. However, bail out financial support extended by IMF/ECB may not be good enough to remove the strong bearish set up in the market. What next?
USD/INR SPOT: The set short term range play within 51.50-52.50 is valid. We have already seen a sharp reversal from close to 52.50 and is in prepartion of extension into lower end. Till fresh news come in, it is good to sell at 52.35-52.50 (to cover 1-3M receivables) and to buy at 51.65-51.50 (to cover 3-6M payables). I would not be surprised to see RBI on the bid at 51.50 to release rupees into the system.
EUR/USD: We have already seen a nice bounce from the 1.3250-1.3200 support zone (and our t/p level for shorts entered above 1.34). The bounce from 1.3210 is now facing resistance at sell window of 1.3325-1.3375.
In the near term, weakness into 1.3150 is very much on cards not ruling out extended weakness into 1.3000/1.2850. For now, let us look to sell at 1.3325-1.3400 (stop above 1.3425) for 1.3150.
USD/JPY: Got a boune from buy zone of 77.25-76.75 but finding it difficult to take out resistance zone of 77.75-78.00. Let us watch 77.50-78.50 with test/break either-way to attract. The expected move into 79.50-80.00 is valid; hence need to be long for this move.
NIFTY: Good news from Euro zone provided shorts squeeze to drive the NIFTY to higher end of the set range play at 4350-4850. The move from 4650-4850 is at best considered as correction and market should get back to take out 4650 for extension to 4450-4350.
Gold: The reversal from 1710 held well at 1680 and bounce from there was good enough to take out 1710 but expected to stay below 1735. Let us sell at 1725-1740 with stop above 1750 for 1680
NYMEX Crude: It has now traded end-to-end of 95-100. Let us continue to watch 100-103 to hold for push back to 97-95. Play end-to-end.
Moses Harding
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