Monday, December 29, 2014

Global markets steady into 2014 year end!

Bullish undertone in equity assets!

DJIA index settles at set year-end focus zone of 17850-18100 with positive undertone, highlighting investor's risk-on mode into 2015. Do not see cues to trigger break-out of the said range into 2014 year end; close above 18000 will be positive for 2015!

Mixed cues on US 10Y Treasury yield

Stability in US 10Y bond around 2.25% is mixed on lack of clarity on the timing of FED rate-hike action against optimism on US economy and lack of it in other major economies. Given this outlook, it is fair to assume near/short term stability at 2.15/2.20-2.35/2.40%; play end-to-end.

USD into bullish stability

DXY in sideways mode at 89.50/89.75-90.50 retaining the built-up bullish undertone. Most cues suggest shift into near/short term stability at 89.50-92.50 into 2015.

EUR/USD now finds near/short term resistance at 1.2250-1.2300 with momentum build-up for extended weakness into 1.2050 ahead of 1.1850 to complete the short term fundamentals driven value-adjustment from 1.30-1.40.

USD/JPY steady above 120 but finds it tough for extended gains into 121.50-122.00; however near/short term trend is firm into 123.50-125 while 118.50-120 stays rock-solid.

Commodities struggle against US optimism

Brent Crude at lower end of 58.50/60-63.50/65 focus zone with bias into 56.00 seen as strong long term support point. At this point, let us retain focus at 55/56.50-62/63.50 into year end and await better clarity on way forward.

Gold failure at 1235-1260 for return of focus into 1160-1210 is not bullish undertone with near-term push-bias into 1120-1135 while 1195-1210 stay firm.

Moses Harding

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