USD/INR Spot: Rupee has gained sharply into 51.50 from the low of 53.50. We had considered 53-54 as dollar sell zone and do not prefer to stay short dollars at 52-51. Now, it is good to exit March 2012 dollars initiated at 54.65 at current around 52.50 and stay aside for now. We continuet to prefer RBI's support to the greenback at 51.50-51.00. It is good to buy February dollars at or below 52.00.
EUR/USD: The correction in EUR/USD failed short of resistance at 1.2825 (high of 1.2818). The momentum in the downtrend is diluted now; hence risk of extension into 1.2850-1.2900 before down into 1.2675 ahead of 1.2575. Exit shorts and look to reinstate at 1.2850-1.2900 with stop at 1.2925.
10Y bond: The sharp fall from 8.15% to 8.28% is in order. Look to buy weakness into 8.30-8.35% for 8.20%.
OIS rates: 5Y OIS rate is sharply up above 7.85% (1Y) and 7.15% (5Y). Looks good to initiate received book at 7.90-8.0% in 1Y and 7.20-7.25% in 5Y.
FX premium: 12M premium found support at 4.85% for rally into 5.25%. Should look heavy at 5.5% before reversal back into 4.75%. 3M is heavy above 7.5%
NIFTY: The reversal from 4530 has taken out 4850 and may allow extension into 5000-5150 while 4750 stays firm.
Good luck.....Moses Harding
EUR/USD: The correction in EUR/USD failed short of resistance at 1.2825 (high of 1.2818). The momentum in the downtrend is diluted now; hence risk of extension into 1.2850-1.2900 before down into 1.2675 ahead of 1.2575. Exit shorts and look to reinstate at 1.2850-1.2900 with stop at 1.2925.
10Y bond: The sharp fall from 8.15% to 8.28% is in order. Look to buy weakness into 8.30-8.35% for 8.20%.
OIS rates: 5Y OIS rate is sharply up above 7.85% (1Y) and 7.15% (5Y). Looks good to initiate received book at 7.90-8.0% in 1Y and 7.20-7.25% in 5Y.
FX premium: 12M premium found support at 4.85% for rally into 5.25%. Should look heavy at 5.5% before reversal back into 4.75%. 3M is heavy above 7.5%
NIFTY: The reversal from 4530 has taken out 4850 and may allow extension into 5000-5150 while 4750 stays firm.
Good luck.....Moses Harding
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