USD/INR SPOT:
March 2012 dollars have nice moved from the set sell zone of 52.75-53.25 (low of 52.74) into buy zone of 52.25-51.75 (high of 52.19). The unwinding of dollar gains against major currencies (USD Index down from close to 81.50 to below 80.80) will support rupee at this stage. While stability within 51.20-51.50 will be in order till dollar gets back into up trend, may not rule out extension into 51.00 which should hold. Its not prudent for importers to chase dollar weakness in March 2012 dollas below 52.00.
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD held well above 1.2650 for bounce into 1.2850; thus trading end-to-end of 1.2650-1.2850 range. The upward momentum has gained and may not rule out extended Euro gains into 1.2950-1.2975 range. Now wud prefer 1.27-1.30 consolidation.
FX Premium:
Exchange rate play has pushed 3M above 7.5% and 12M above 5.5%. We may allow for extension into 8% and 5.75% before reversal.
10Y Bond:
10Y bond yield firmly boxed at 8.20-8.25%. No change in view.
OIS rates:
1Y rate moved into receive zone of 7.90-8.0% (high of 7.93%) and now at 7.87%. 5Y rate too moved into receive zone of 7.20-7.25% (high at 7.22%) and now at 7.15%. No change in view.
GOLD:
The rally lost steam ahead of sell window of 1665-1680 (high of 1661.70) and now at 1642. No change in view.
NYMEX Crude:
Has traded end-to-end of sell zone at 103-105 and buy zone of 100-98.50 and now at 99.85. No change in view for consolidation at 98-103 with test/break either-way to attract.
NIFTY:
No steam either-way and in tight range trade within 4800-4875. The bias is marginally up into 4950-5000 while 4800-4750 stays firm.
Good luck..................Moses Harding
March 2012 dollars have nice moved from the set sell zone of 52.75-53.25 (low of 52.74) into buy zone of 52.25-51.75 (high of 52.19). The unwinding of dollar gains against major currencies (USD Index down from close to 81.50 to below 80.80) will support rupee at this stage. While stability within 51.20-51.50 will be in order till dollar gets back into up trend, may not rule out extension into 51.00 which should hold. Its not prudent for importers to chase dollar weakness in March 2012 dollas below 52.00.
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD held well above 1.2650 for bounce into 1.2850; thus trading end-to-end of 1.2650-1.2850 range. The upward momentum has gained and may not rule out extended Euro gains into 1.2950-1.2975 range. Now wud prefer 1.27-1.30 consolidation.
FX Premium:
Exchange rate play has pushed 3M above 7.5% and 12M above 5.5%. We may allow for extension into 8% and 5.75% before reversal.
10Y Bond:
10Y bond yield firmly boxed at 8.20-8.25%. No change in view.
OIS rates:
1Y rate moved into receive zone of 7.90-8.0% (high of 7.93%) and now at 7.87%. 5Y rate too moved into receive zone of 7.20-7.25% (high at 7.22%) and now at 7.15%. No change in view.
GOLD:
The rally lost steam ahead of sell window of 1665-1680 (high of 1661.70) and now at 1642. No change in view.
NYMEX Crude:
Has traded end-to-end of sell zone at 103-105 and buy zone of 100-98.50 and now at 99.85. No change in view for consolidation at 98-103 with test/break either-way to attract.
NIFTY:
No steam either-way and in tight range trade within 4800-4875. The bias is marginally up into 4950-5000 while 4800-4750 stays firm.
Good luck..................Moses Harding
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